Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 17 – New England Patriots 24

(8:40) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 28, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model