4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 51

New England Patriots 17 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to GB 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP