Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 0

(6:38) 6-M.Wile punts 40 yards to DET 35, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.55 EP
44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model