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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 59

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model