4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(:55) 6-M.Wile punts 45 yards to DET 1, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP