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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 19

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.89 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model