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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 6-M.Wile punts 40 yards to DET 3, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-41-A.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model