4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 77

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to MIN 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model