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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-C.Beebe pushed ob at DET 24 for 13 yards (31-T.Tabor).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.03 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model