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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 16

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model