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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 35
Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7
What Actually Happened
(8:19) 9-M.Stafford scrambles left end to MIN 32 for 3 yards (50-E.Wilson).
The Three Options
GO
+1.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -2.02 EP
KICK
+0.17 EP
- 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT
-0.64 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
