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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 59

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to ATL 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 10 for 4 yards (41-D.Johnson; 16-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model