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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 28 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 4-G.Tavecchio 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model