Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 62

Washington Commanders 14 – Atlanta Falcons 28

(13:57) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to ATL 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model