Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 28 – Washington Commanders 14

(:48) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 15 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model