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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 28 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.30 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model