Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 81

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(13:02) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to ATL 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model