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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 15

New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-B.Fowler to WAS 2 for 13 yards (36-D.Swearinger; 24-J.Norman).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP