Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 72

New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 20

(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP