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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP