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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 71

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 14 for 1 yard (56-Z.Vigil, 51-S.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model