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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 58

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to WAS 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model