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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 3 at the 32
New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(14:23) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram.
The Three Options
GO
+1.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.00 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP
KICK
+0.71 EP
- 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
