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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 51

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model