Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 14 for -3 yards (46-K.Bibbs, 22-D.Everett). WAS-46-K.Bibbs was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-57-N.Stupar, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 14. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model