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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 55

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to WAS 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model