Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
New York Giants
4th & 3 at the 18
New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(1:19) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The Three Options
GO
+1.78 EP
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.54 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP
KICK
+1.75 EP
What Happened
- 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT
-0.29 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
