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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 23

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model