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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 78

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 30 for -2 yards (16-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model