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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to TB 26, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TB 34 for 8 yards (29-T.McRae; 46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model