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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.00 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP