4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP