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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 9-B.Anger punts 61 yards to CIN 18, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 12 yards (39-I.Johnson; 89-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.06 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model