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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to TB 32, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model