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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.81 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP