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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to TB 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model