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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green to TB 26 for 10 yards (24-B.Grimes).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model