Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 15 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(2:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.85 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model