Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 15 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(6:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to ARI 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model