Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(4:57) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James to SF 25 for 8 yards (59-J.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model