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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 5 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to ARI 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP