Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 5

(13:39) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James to SF 29 for 9 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model