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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 5

What Actually Happened

(:41) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.44 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model