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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 2 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model