Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 2 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(7:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to ARI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.68 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model