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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 2

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model