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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 20 for 4 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model