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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 30 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to MIN 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.03 EP