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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 6-M.Wile punts 40 yards to NO 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model