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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.83 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP